This movie looks excellent. Someone in my office today spoke at a lunch about peak oil and how experts are projecting us to run out of oil sometime between now and 2030. When peak oil hits, the price of oil will begin to skyrocket as production slows and demand continues to grow exponentially. Oil production won't end immediately, but the prices will make so many things more expensive to do. How will we move around, make stuff, harvest food, build buildings, etc. by using oil costing $200+ a gallon? We'll have to get around with less oil/gas and buy less stuff. We might not be so concerned with everything looking so pretty, nice smelling, or convenient (e.g., disposable goods). Are you ready? It's coming.
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When we hit peak oil, won't the price begin to decline? Otherwise, we won't have hit the peak.
My understanding of the issue goes like this: Peak oil represents the point at which we will no longer see growth in the production output of oil. In fact, once we stop finding new oil sources, the amount of oil will not only stop growing, it will be reduced. So, oil availability will level off and then start to reduce and become more scarce. However, all of the cars, factories, and other energy needs will still be there and will probably rise (unless we start living more sustainably). When the same amount of people are competing for an increasingly limited supply of a thing, the price of that thing should go up, all things being equal. So, "peak oil" as a term is really about the availability of oil, not the price.
Oh, I get it. My mistake. "Peak oil" means peak oil production, not peak oil price.
As oil becomes more expensive, more sources of oil become economically viable. I remember when oil was $20 a barrel, many of those oil pumps one sees by the side of the road in Texas were dormant, not because there was no oil below them, but because they cost more than $20 a barrel to operate.
So it's possible that we'll see skyrocketing oil prices, driven by demand from China, well before the peak of oil production. I think there's a substantial quantity (I've read estimates that place the quantity as high as 2.7 butt loads) of oil in Canada that are still un-economic to exploit at $100/barrel.
Also, as the price goes up other non-petroleum sources of energy will also become attractive, as well as capital intensive conservation measures like hybrid cars, which are currently not worth the price premium from a strictly economic standpoint.
For all these reasons I have a lot of skepticism about claims that we'll run out of oil by a given date. I remember in 1976 experts saying that oil would run out by 2000. I don't think we'll ever run out, we'll just transition to other energy sources as oil becomes more expensive.
The transition away from petroleum energy might be a smooth process that unfolds over decades and not an "oil crisis".
The main source of energy before oil was wood. At some point in the 20th century, wood production hit a peak, but there was never a wood crisis.
Good point. It goes to show that things are rarely as bad or as good as presented by any source.
New oil fields may buy us more time to develop alternative energy sources, although the market will not produce them as fast as it would if we were pressed by a true oil crisis. If we do face a "climate crisis," then new oil sources may be more a curse than a blessing in the big picture. Alas, the climate crisis may also not be as grave or urgent as it's been presented.
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